El Niño and La Niña -- the Pacific’s deadly duo |
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By Eric J. Lyman As El Niño’s storms pounded the Pacific coast of the Americas starting in late 1997, its effect on the Peruvian coastal city of Trujillo reached apocalyptic proportions. Rivers burst their banks and the sea surged 15 kilometers inland to flood the main plaza of the desert city of one million, which can go a decade without a drop of rain. The deluge rendered hundreds of kilometers of roads in Trujillos’s district of La Liberdád useless and destroyed or disabled 43 of 56 bridges around the city. Flood waters even eroded the earth in the city’s oldest graveyard, sending cadavers and ancient coffins floating through the streets in a spectre so horrible that city leaders dedicated one stormy Sunday in March to ask beleaguered citizens to beg God for relief. The name El Niño -- Spanish for "the Christ Child" -- comes from Peruvian fisherman, who named it generations ago for the timing of its peak, which usually comes around Christmas. Historical records show the phenomenon has occurred every two to ten years for at least the last five centuries. Since the turn of this century, 23 El Niños have affected the earth, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). But the four strongest have all struck since 1980. El Niño is a fluctuation in the distribution of sea-surface temperatures and of atmospheric pressure across the tropical Pacific Ocean, leading to worldwide impacts on regional weather patterns. No one knows exactly why it takes place, but recent computer climate modeling suggests the frequency and strength of both El Niño and its sister effect La Niña are increased by global warming -- and 1998 was by far the warmest year since worldwide records began 150 years ago. Despite doubts over the precise relationship of climatic cause-and-effect, the mechanisms are well documented. In normal conditions, trade winds blowing west along the equator push warmer surface waters towards southeast Asia, where they accumulate, evaporate and fall as heavy tropical rains. Meanwhile, off the Pacific coast of Latin America, cooler nutrient- rich waters well up from the ocean depths, causing dryer conditions along the shores of Peru and Chile, and making their fishing grounds among the most fertile in the world.
warm surface waters of the western equatorial Pacific shift east. This generates unseasonal rain and storms over the Pacific coast of the Americas, while leaving drought to afflict southeast Asia and the western Pacific. By January 1998, at the peak of the latest El Niño, a pool of hot water the size of Canada and up to 400 meters deep stretched west from Latin America, preventing the cooler coastal waters from welling up and seriously disrupting oceanic food chains. Surface water temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific reached around the world. But the areas hit hardest by El Niño’s effects are usually the western and eastern rims of the Pacific, between 35 degrees north and south of the equator. Pioneer meteorologist Sir Gilbert Walker, working in the 1920s, was the first to notice that when air pressure increases in the west Pacific, it drops in the east, causing the Pacific’s west-bound trade winds to reverse course. Subsequent statistical analysis in the 1960s linked this pressure inversion (known as the Southern Oscillation) with El Niño. Lower pressure in the eastern equatorial Pacific during El Niño events also draws the subtropical jet stream further south, producing water winter storms and in the south-west US and north- west Mexico. As the jet stream continues east, it meets little resistance from weak westerly trade winds and slices off the tops of Atlantic hurricanes, preventing many of them from reaching the US east coast and Caribbean. Once El Niño has passed, seawater and air circulation reverse direction again. If the swing back is dramatic, it creates a condition called La Niña -- less frequent and therefore less studied than recent El Niños. During La Niña, the warm waters off Latin America head west and are replaced by unusually cold currents known as the "equatorial cold tongue," chilling sea-surface temperature by up to seven degrees Celsius below El Niño levels. Westbound trade winds blow stronger than usual, and cycles of flooding and drought are often inverted. Heavier rains fall on the western Pacfic, southern and eastern Asia, northern Australia, and as far west as southern Africa. High atmospheric pressure over the central Pacific weakens the subtropical jet stream, allowing powerful Atlantic hurricanes to form. On 24 September 1998, for the first time this century, four Atlantic hurricanes -- including the deadly Hurricane Mitch -- were active at once. "Such enhanced hurricane activity," says the World Meteorogical Organization, "is consistent with developing La Niña conditions." El Niño pummels Peru In Latin America, the unusually long and severe weather fluctuations of 1997-98’s El Niño were aggravated by changes in population concentration, over-development of in urban areas and the rapid growth of weather-sensitive industries like fishing and agriculture, making the fallout among the worst ever recorded. Across Peru, rain-swollen rivers and mudslides destroyed 300 bridges and swept away entire villages, leaving up to a half a million homeless. Government estimates put El Niño- related damage to public infrastructure alone at US$ 2.6 billion -- nearly five percent of the country’s gross domestic product. Waters offshore became so warm that many fish species headed north or south in search of cooler, more than nutrient-rich climes. Violent rainfall churned up coastal seas and fresh water runoff decreased salinity, further affecting fish stocks. Peru’s merchant fishing fleet -- usually the country’s second largest industry -- saw output in the first quarter of the 1998 fall a staggering 96 percent compared to the same period in 1997. Severe weather completely closed the ports of Callao and Chiclayo (Peru’s first and fourth most important ports) and flooding buried half the major port of Ica (the fifth largest port) under two meters of mud that kept the port closed more than a year after weather began to return to normal. |
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There are still no consensus estimates for the cost of damage to private property, but some health-care providers say the most lingering effect of El Niño could be the diseases spread, argued that such diseases and even birth defects may not become apparent for a generation. Even if this overstates the case, floods increased the chance of contracting diseases transmitted by rodents and polluted water. Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) warned that floods and warmer weather produced conditions favoring the spread of malaria, yellow fever, and dengue fever. In the Piura region alone, three times as many residents as usual contracted malaria -- 30,000 cases affected one in 50 of the population. And health services were severely handicapped by El Niño-related flooding, which damaged equipment, supplies, and buildings. Nevertheless, health preparedness throughout the region was far better than prior to the 1982-83 event. The economic impact on Peru may be felt for a decade or more. The fishing industry isn’t expected to match 1996 levels (the last full pre-El Niño year) until 2002-03 and may not resume its growth curve for several years after that, according to the private sector National Association of Fishing Workers. Mining, Peru’s largest industry, had already been crippled by low commodity prices associated with Asia’s economic problems, and El Niño prolonged production schedules at several important coastal mines through flooding and road damage. Tourism-related revenues fell in 1998 for the first time this decade. Consumer spending fell 15 percent compared to the previous year. And one survey showed the Peruvian’s confidence in the economy and government sliding to 18% at its low point during El Niño, compared to 72 percent in late 1996. Damage to the agricultural sector, which saw production fall by a quarter in the first half of 1998, compared to 1997 levels, forced Peru to become a net importer of several key food products, swelling the country’s trade gap to an estimated US$ 2.7 billion in 1998 from US$ 1.8 billion in 1997. The country’s usually robust economy, which grew an average of 6.9 percent a year from 1993 to 1997, mustered only 0.7 percent year-on-year growth in 1998 -- which amounted to an economic contraction in per capita terms, as Peru’s population grew 2.2 percent during the same period. |
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(c) 1999 World Disaster Report International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies www.ifrc.com All rights reserved. |
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El Niño means the end of the line for many Peruvian fishermen Fisherman German Herrera’s family has made a career of recovering from setbacks. But Herrera, aged 71, said El Niño convinced him and his children to give up the fisherman’s hard life. "A man can suffer only so much" he said, adding wearily: "A man can only start over so many times." Atico, the southern Peruvian port where Herrera grew up, is home to a fishing tradition stretching back more than a millennium. Before 1997-98’s El Niño, the air of the town was filled with the smell of salt and the sound of metal halyards slapping against boat masts. At the end of a working day, the lagoon was so full of fishing boats it seemed the entire centre of town rose and fell with the tides. But El Niño filled the lagoon with mud, greatly reducing its depth. Severe rains destroyed one in four town buildings and changes in water temperature drove the fish indigenous to Atico far out to sea. Though the currents off Atico are affected by every El Niño, the latest one lashed out at the area with uncommon fury. The port’s economy crumbled, its young traveled north to Lima’s growing slums in desperate search of work and those left behind fought to survive. Herrera started fishing with his father when he was eight, but El Niño has wrecked his boat. Tempted to sell the plot of land in Atico where he was born and join his sons in Lima, he is resigned to living out his days dependent on meager government and family handouts. "My father fished until his eighties, and he used to say that our family had salt water in its veins," said the fisherman. "But I don’t care to continue with that lifestyle and I don’t want my children and grandchildren doing it either." Strange considering his personal history. Herrera survived a boat accident that killed two sons and a brother 35 years ago. He lost the use of his left hand in a motor accident half a dozen years later. But he successfully returned to fishing after the haphazard nationalization of the industry in the 1970s nearly destroyed most of the country’s fishing companies that invested in Peru’s fishing industry when privatization began in the early 1990s. "Before El Niño, we were finally on track to return to the glory days [of the 1960s]," he said. "Now it will take another 25 years … I won’t be around to see it." A large slice if post-El Niño funds from the Peruvian government and multilateral organizations is aimed at rebuilding the country’s battered merchant fishing fleet. But little is aimed at helping independent fisherman like German Herrera. That may mean many of them going the same way he has. "These small fishermen have no safety net to catch them during a disaster like El Niño," said Hernando Dicho Vasquez, a Peru-based disaster preparedness consultant. "They have to look elsewhere." If that happens, it will be a sad day for Peru’s coastal fishing villages, prophesies Herrera: "My grandchildren will be the first generation I know of in my family that won’t earn a living from the sea," he said, adding: "Many of my cousins and friends say the same thing. This is the end of an era." --By Eric J. Lyman |